Unit Overview
- Description
This unit introduces students to the theory and application of time-series econometrics, with a focus on forecasting macroeconomic and financial variables. Students will learn about stochastic processes to understand and predict trends over time. The unit emphasizes key tools for model identification, evaluation, diagnostics, and model performance. In addition, students will be introduced to modern machine learning techniques for time-series forecasting.
Topics to be considered, but not limited to, are:
- Stylized facts of financial and macro time series; stationarity, autocorrelation, returns
- ARMA: identification, estimation, diagnostics
- VARs, impulse responses, Granger causality
- Volatility modelling I: ARCH, GARCH family
- Regime switching and structural breaks
- Machine learning for time series
- Credit
- 6 points
- Offering
Availability Location Mode First year of offer Not available in 2026 UWA (Perth) On-campus - Details for undergraduate courses
- Level 3 elective
- Outcomes
Students are able to (1) develop computational programming skills to work with large, complex financial and macroeconomic datasets; (2) demonstrate an understanding of the key principles of time-series analysis, recognize the assumptions underlying models, evaluate the methods used, and identify limitations in applying these techniques to real-world data; (3) analyze real-world data through various time series techniques, apply diagnostic checks, refine models for improved forecast accuracy, and develop strategies to address data challenges; and (4) interpret results effectively in the context of macroeconomics and finance, and communicate complex concepts effectively to technical and non-technical audiences.
- Assessment
Indicative assessments in this unit are as follows: (1) assignment; (2) three mini-tests in class; and (3) participation. Further information is available in the unit outline.
Student may be offered supplementary assessment in this unit if they meet the eligibility criteria.
- Unit Coordinator(s)
- Dr Nam Phan
- Contact hours
- seminars: 3 hours per week
- The availability of units in Semester 1, 2, etc. was correct at the time of publication but may be subject to change.
- All students are responsible for identifying when they need assistance to improve their academic learning, research, English language and numeracy skills; seeking out the services and resources available to help them; and applying what they learn. Students are encouraged to register for free online support through GETSmart; to help themselves to the extensive range of resources on UWA's STUDYSmarter website; and to participate in WRITESmart and (ma+hs)Smart drop-ins and workshops.
- Visit the Essential Textbooks website to see if any textbooks are required for this Unit. The website is updated regularly so content may change. Students are recommended to purchase Essential Textbooks, but a limited number of copies of all Essential Textbooks are held in the Library in print, and as an ebook where possible. Recommended readings for the unit can be accessed in Unit Readings directly through the Learning Management System (LMS).
- Contact hours provide an indication of the type and extent of in-class activities this unit may contain. The total amount of student work (including contact hours, assessment time, and self-study) will approximate 150 hours per 6 credit points.
Face to face
Predominantly face-to-face. On campus attendance required to complete this unit. May have accompanying resources online.
Online flexible
100% Online Unit. NO campus face-to-face attendance is required to complete this unit. All study requirements are online only. Unit is asynchronous delivery, with NO requirement for students to participate online at specific times.
Online timetabled
100% Online Unit. NO campus face-to-face attendance is required to complete this unit. All study requirements are online only. Unit includes some synchronous components, with a requirement for students to participate online at specific times.
Online Restricted
Not available for self-enrolment. Students access this mode by contacting their student office through AskUWA. 100% Online Unit.
NO campus face-to-face attendance. All study and assessment requirements are online only. Unit includes some timetabled activities, with a requirement for students to participate online at specific times. In exceptional cases (noted in the Handbook) students may be required to participate in face-to-face laboratory classes when a return to UWA’s Crawley campus becomes possible in order to be awarded a final grade.
External
No attendance or regular contact is required, and all study requirements are completed either via correspondence and/or online submission.
Off-campus
Regular attendance is not required, but student attends the institution face to face on an agreed schedule for purposes of supervision and/or instruction.
Multi-mode
Multiple modes of delivery. Unit includes a mix of online and on-campus study requirements. On campus attendance for some activities is required to complete this unit.